Allianz Risk Barometer 2026 -
Global risk #3: Business interruption (29%)

2025 marked a shift towards protectionist trade policies and tariff wars that brought uncertainty to the world economy. It was also a year of regional conflicts in the Middle East and Russia/Ukraine, as well as border disputes between India/Pakistan and Thailand/Cambodia and civil wars in Sudan, Ethiopia and Myanmar – a trend which continues in 2026 with the US intervention in Venezuela. 

According to Verisk Maplecroft [1], business assets have seen a 22% jump in exposure to conflict areas, following an almost 90% rise in areas affected by armed fighting over the last five years (which now covers almost 5% of the inhabited world). 

Unsurprisingly, political risks and violence climbs two places in this year’s Allianz Risk Barometer to #7. The closely linked risk of changes in legislation and regulation – which includes trade tariffs – ranks #4 globally, unchanged year-on-year but with an increase in the number of respondents, driven by concerns about growing protectionism. 

In fact, global supply chain paralysis due to a geopolitical conflict ranks as the most plausible “black swan” scenario likely to materialize in the next five years (51%), according to Allianz Risk Barometer respondents. Mass social unrest and political instability impacting business continuity ranks #4 (29%).

Global trade and supply chains are being reshaped in a world divided by geopolitics, protectionism, and the effects of climate change. In the past year alone, trade restrictions have tripled to affect an estimated US$2.7trn of merchandise according to Allianz Trade – nearly 20% of global imports – fueling trends such as friendshoring and regionalization. 

When asked how their company is addressing shifting trade and investment patterns – including the impact of tariffs – half of Allianz Risk Barometer respondents say they are exploring new markets and products. Almost half (49%) are renegotiating and diversifying supply chains, while a similar number say they are streamlining operations to cut costs, and/or investing in advanced analytics and supply chain management software. 

Just over a third (35%) are exploring nearshoring and evaluating domestic manufacturing options, while 32% are looking to improve inventory management, including storing inventory in Free Trade Zones. 

Top 5 responses

Despite the lessons of the Covid-19 pandemic and geopolitical shocks such as the war in Ukraine, many companies are not confident in the resilience of their supply chains – only 3% of respondents rate their supply chains as “very resilient” in this year’s Allianz Risk Barometer. Just over half (58%) of respondents believe their companies’ supply chains to be “somewhat resilient” while almost a third (32%) believe they are “resilient” to disruptions caused by geopolitical conflicts, shifting trade patterns or critical infrastructure failures.

“Only 3% of respondents in this year’s Allianz Risk Barometer rate their supply chains as ‘very resilient’. Supply chain disruption and business interruption remain critical concerns, now amplified by cyber threats, geopolitical shocks, and climate-related risks. The reality is that businesses may face multiple crises simultaneously: for example, a severe weather event disrupting supply chains while a cyber-attack or critical infrastructure failure unfolds in parallel,” says Daniel Muller, Head of Emerging Risk Trends, Allianz Commercial.

As risk becomes more complex and interconnected businesses will need to take a more holistic approach to resilience.

“Historically, risks were managed in silos – climate, geopolitical, and cyber threats were often treated separately,” explains Muller. “Today, that approach is no longer viable. Organizations must adopt an integrated resilience strategy that combines cyber defense, AI governance, supply chain diversification, climate adaptation, geopolitical monitoring, and crisis response. True resilience comes from connecting these capabilities into a cohesive framework.

“Companies now need to have forward-looking approaches to managing risk, including dynamic horizon scanning, scenario modeling, and rigorous stress testing. And because risks are deeply interconnected, a global, cross-functional crisis response is essential. When disruption strikes, every part of the organization must act in alignment to ensure resilience and continuity.”